…never wide of the mark…
Those that know me know that I recently have become obsessed with puzzles. I recently bought the history of football.
Well, I did some more research and found out that the Artist is a big Watford fan!
So, I e-mailed the guy and said hello and purchased my very own Watford mish-mash poster for my office from his site (if I can find room).
Keeping the results posts short and sweet this week and with some early analysis on the season.
Looks like AM is on an early roll and following the exploits of his team (GGMU) with a second consecutive week at the top of the table with three exact scores (thanks to my solid advice on picking 0-0 for the Watford game against Brighton). I made another solid outing getting the fewest wrong again. I do not know what to say about poor LS who managed to get EIGHT games wrong. Ouch!
I am producing an average pick table which I think provides some interesting early analysis. This table shows the table as it would be if our average predictions were the actual results. I produce the same for every person and can post them any time you are interested in seeing that level of detail.
Analysis
Manchester United (A)
Listening to the commentators the title is all but over. Jose wins everything in his second year before leaving the team behind in a mess.
Good Times
Liverpool (A)
Quality opening day draw against the Hornets followed by two mediocre wins including one against Arsenal puts them as a potential league favorite.
Deadline day signings and lack of signings (Coutinho) bode well.
Huddersfield Town (A+)
Champions league beckons because Wagner is trained by Klopp and that means awesome things.
Manchester City (B)
Pep’s total approach to football is so advanced we expect it will take another year or two for the players to understand what he wants.
West Bromwich Albion (B+)
Tony Pulis’ team has started well as they always do. No one knows how other than his approach to football is so simple that it takes only a day or two for the players to understand what he wants.
Chelsea (B)
Diego Costa is not in the plans but even with their most annoying player gone they are still the most annoying team.
Watford (B)
Strategically exiting the Milk Cup to focus on the league was a good decision. Expect them to do the same with the FA Cup
Southampton (B-)
A decent start to the season means that it’s definitely reasonable to consider selling the top talent so expect Virgil to go to the scousers.
Tottenham Hotspur (D-)
Wembley is not a good place for Spuds,unfortunately they have 17 more games to play there.
Stoke City (C)
Mark Hughes is one of those managers that you wonder how he still has a job. I’ll let you ponder that too.
Burnley (B)
They sell their best player and have 4 points from Spuds, and Chelsea and everything looks great… but a home loss to West Brom means what? Have fun predicting this team.
Everton (C)
Looks like Rooney has found himself a new home. He also retired from International football which is fortunate as it coincides with him no longer being picked. Phew.
Swansea City (C)
The team managed by the most French person from Reading ever are lucky to be in the English Premier League (because they’re Welsh!) but they should be able to move on after Gylfi Sigurdsson finally left and they have structure to their team. What’s that? Hazard says that Llorente is going to Chelsea? Where will Batshit Batshuayi play?
Newcastle United (C)
Rafa has allegedly achieved “god-like” status on Tyneside. I don’t know if that means he’s Kevin Keegan, Alan Shearer, or Paul Gascoigne. I do know it’s hyperbole, which isn’t unusual for fans who are convinced they are one of the biggest teams in the country.
Leicester City (B)
This Leicester is better than last year’s Leicester and this year’s Vardy is better than last year’s Vardy. My biggest hope is that they are so average even Gary Lineker is lost for words.
Arsenal (D-)
Arsenal are at the arse end of the table and the arse end of the Arsene career.
Brighton & Hove Albion (D)
I remember Norman Whiteside ruining their dreams so many years ago. Wonder where he is? Wherever it is I’m sure he’s surprised where Brighton are. I don’t think anyone is surprised that they haven’t scored yet – Chris Hughton is no doubt proud of the effort.
Bournemouth (D-)
Not the best start to the year. Could be a long and hard season if they don’t sort it out quick smart. Not sure what to make of the team – they have talent moving forward but clearly losing to Watford makes them bad.
Crystal Palace (D-)
I thought Palace would be better this year. Call me an idiot.
West Ham United (F-)
Remember Aston Villa a couple of years back? Decent team that wouldn’t go down and just started badly turned team that continued badly and might go down and ended up team that was bad and went down? Now re-read that and replace one claret and blue team for another.
Remember – this week is an International Break so we get to see Malta take a thumping (you’d assume).
A couple of you caught the slight error on the form in that caused your score predictions guesses to be emailed against last weeks games. So the first game this week is Bournemouth taking on Citeh… and the email showed your scores against for last week’s first game: Bournemouth against Watford.
I noticed when people had Watford scoring 3 or 5 goals. Silva may be more attack minded that Mazzari but they aren’t scoring 5 any time soon.
While the form is more efficient, easier, and keeps people’s peeping eyes of other’s predictions guesses I do miss the good old days of trying to enter hand written photos and remembering the 80s when bands were bands and everyone was wearing short shorts.
Back then…everyone wore short shorts….
The Entry Form – What I Miss Part II
JE likes to make up team names. I miss that. I’ll have to think about how he can continue to incorporate his personality into the entries – I’ve tried to play along.
Some people actually write comments. Please do. I really do like this and I will respond to the comments.
This weeks pick of the comments:
“Miss writing man shitty.”
I know you do. But you got to write it in the comment so you didn’t really miss it at all did you.
“Mum likes romelu. Lol.”
I used to like him more.
“How was mark lanegan?”
I think we’re getting off topic but his voice appears to be working a lot better than his body. Drugs, unlike milk, do not do a body good.
“Wouldn’t be surprised if the Hornets lose”
An image response for this one:
“This weeks results will be [his picks]”
Last week’s winner getting a little cocky writing this with his picks ! Slightly taken out of context 🙂
No late picks this week. Everything on time just like the great British train service. So…just a quick run through.
Bournemouth V Manchester City
Lost at home to the Mighty Moose of St Albans and everyone writes you off… 0-3,0-5 at home? Shitty (that’s for your JE) will win but it won’t be comfortable at all. Did everyone miss the game where they salvaged a draw against Everton?
Chelsea V Everton
Everton are decent but I don’t see Rooney scoring three weeks in a row and Chelsea aren’t as bad as their opening game nightmare.
Crystal Palace V Swansea City
Two lower half teams. It hasn’t been a factor in recent years but Selhurst park is loud and will give the Eagles and edge and let them defeat the Swans. It’s not a must win but the Palace manager Frank de Boer has called it a must win.
If it’s a must win they must win.
Huddersfield Town V Southampton
Huddersfield averaged under a goal a game and play a possession heavy game. This worked against Newcastle (barely) but this week they will fail to score and the Saints will slip in a late winner.
Liverpool V Arsenal
Everyone wants to believe Liverpool are better than they are and that Arsenal are better than they are….so everyone is hedging a draw. Arsenal will give it a good run but will end up losers in a back and forth affair.
Giroud comes on the field and for once is not the worst haircut playing…until Firmino goes to the bench at least. Jason Lee, we miss you.
Manchester United V Leicester City
The key moment in recent memory for Leicester was a 5-3 win over the Red Devils. It would be really nice if they could repeat that feat but it won’t happen. The foxes are a better team this year than last and aren’t distracted by the Champions League… Lukaku will probably score a hattrick and take his shirt off for BE.
Newcastle United V West Ham United
West Ham.Are.Rubbish.
Tottenham Hotspur V Burnley
“Hopefully Spurs second away home game will be a better result!” Where there’s hope there’s a way.
Watford V Brighton & Hove Albion
Easy win for the Moosemen now that we extricated ourselves from the Milk, Coca Cola Rumbelows Littlewoods League Cup. Should be a thriller with Brighton holding out for a 0-0 draw against a team no
West Bromwich Albion V Stoke City
If any game screams a draw this one is it. Reminds me of when I picked the Baggies as 1-0 every game.
A few form mishaps here and there on the forms but they should work much better this week*.
Week 3 Entry forms:
Current Entry
Current Entry (JE Styley)
The final predictions as they were at kick-off.
And here are the results.
First Things First (or Last)
If you’re looking to beat the current champion, JE, then you will be happy to find out that he’s human after all. After winning last week he dropped down the rankings and finished dead last – this position is also known as “tied-with-BE”.
Game within a Game
Mr AM joined this week with the sole purpose (I believe) of beating ME and he succeeded with an impressive tied for first place. Using rules that I make up on the fly I would say that I beat him via the “Alt”ernative point system; however, if I were to do that I would start hearing and argument on AB on how he finished out of the top spot despite having the highest score!
Bournemouth V Watford
I hate the dreaded six-pointer designation to matches because they’re always applied over Christmas or during the run-in when the same points are available early on. While this isn’t a six-pointer it is 3 points Watford added and 3 points Bournemouth didn’t. A home loss this early doesn’t bode well for the season but an away win means that Watford will secure safety before we collapse and fire our manager.
Burnley V West Bromwich Albion
Not sure how West Brom do it… but they aren’t boing boing’ing between divisions. Burnley amassed all their points at home last year and struggled away – will this year be different. Guess it already is.
Huddersfield Town V Newcastle United
Always going to be tight but Newcastle are a team that will continue to believe they are bigger than they are.
Leicester City V Brighton & Hove Albion
Memo for Chris Hughton: nice guys finish last or get fired.
Leicester are not going to be Champions but are in no danger of going down with their current team.
Liverpool V Crystal Palace
It seems that Liverpool value Coutinho in the region of 1 Billion. That would provide adequate cash to buy Lovren a one way ticket out of town.
Manchester City V Everton
I get the feeling sometimes that Pep is a kid with toy many toys…. I think he’s trying to run his train on a scalextric track. (This analogy may not work for young people or non-European….. replace it with throwing pool balls at a dart board…. or using a toy in a manner it is not equipped for).
Rooney’s proving he’s past it.
Southampton V West Ham United
West Ham are going to lose a good manager pretty soon.
Stoke City V Arsenal
Arsenal appear to be trying to emulate Arsenal.
Swansea City V Manchester United
Another 4-0. Another week anointing them Champions. *Yawn*
Tottenham Hotspur V Chelsea
Wembley is not a home game. It’s a game at a non-filled stadium on a pitch famous for producing poor performances (go England!) Spurs will continue to struggle this year with tiredness – playing a press on a giant field is hard….
*Unless you use a phone to live your life. Find a real PC or send them to me via email. I plan to move from a table to CSS to remove this impediment soon.
Currently enjoying some time off so do not have time to do a full write up but picks are up.
As always, waiting for JE (and AB, too).
Guesses for Week 2
Surprisingly, the results are following a trend pattern similar to the end of last year: I’m getting more picks correct in terms of results but again failing to capitalize on the exact score bonus points leaving me mid-table, JE setting the pace, and BE continuing the slide backwards.
LJ who professes that those who know the most about football are destined to fail due to their propensity to over-think and over-analyze is once again proving that rule.
New players LS and AB put in a respectable showing and all in all it was a decent opening week with no standout poor and no standout great tallies.
So congrats to JE for a solid round and me for winning a category I just made up (most correct results).
A quick summary of some key events:
Chelsea had a disaster start losing two men and the game… I’m surprised they didn’t lose their keys. For once, Diego Costa was not the talking point.
Newcastle had a losing start when their game featured Jonjo Shelvey return to his very best form and added to his philatelic collection.
Watford snatched a draw from the jaws of defeat with a goal that was onside in the dying seconds. It was onside because it wasn’t offside. When I say it wasn’t offside I mean it wasn’t called offside.
Manchester United were crowned Champions by the TV punditry and Lukaku and Matic co-players of the year. This despite the fact that they beat a terrible West Ham team at home and two meaningless goals at the end don’t make a 4-0 result dominating.
Rooney went back to the team he supported as a young boy and scored.
It’s Round 1 and most of the picks are in…as usual we have JE being casually late and operating on his own Fergie/Mourinho time. Or, Silva time.
We have a few new people join this time round to see if they can match up to the current champion and Beebster’s biggest fan, my brother, JE.
*I may go into more detail on who is who later but I will point out three supercomputer algorithms that are playing (SC1,SC2, SC3). The winner last year was a supercomputer! The algorithms are proprietary and have not yet yielded financial returns (it’s illegal to wire money for betting purposes in the USA).
The opening few weeks will be a case of calibrating team expectations. Will West Ham finally adjust to playing in a giant cavern? How will the Spuds do playing all there games away from home at the large Wembley. They will no doubt miss the intimate White Hart Lane and suffer from the less than intimate size of the new field (tiring on the old legs). From the second smallest to largest field in a year is going to have an impact – not to mention their 1-4 record there last year.
The bigger problem is just keeping track of transfers and what those transfers mean. The big names are obvious – Lukaku will be expected to deliver 25 goals (and fail), Cleverly will be expected to deliver mediocre performances (and succeed). More than that there is the stupidity of the open transfer window – will Coutinho actually leave.
Watford bought a Burnley substitute for18m GBP which took spending to over $1 B GBP (yes, that is a B). Let’s put that in perspective.
If you look at it from the point of view of fans:
All the picks so far:
Arsenal V Leicester City
Going to be a good start to the league, lots of goals,lots of excitement. This prediction lark is a lot easier after the fact.
Brighton & Hove Albion V Manchester City
Soufyan Ahannach has come in and make a huge difference for the Seagulls and they are looking to shatter their transfer record with a 13.5 million signing which is about the amount Yaya wants Citeh to spend on his agent’s birthday cake. It’s not really fair is it.
Chelsea V Burnley
Most people see Chelsea walking this game but Burnley will not, I repeat, will not be as horrible away from home as they were last year. Conte didn’t get the star power additions he wanted and Hazard is hard. This is a tougher position than they faced all of last year.. just putting in a back 3 and playing from the front was easy. They’ll still win.
Crystal Palace V Huddersfield Town
Palace from the Sowf at home against the newly promoted team from the the North. I think Palace will surprise a little this year. They didn’t get relegated with Big Sam so imagine how well they will do with a right proper boss who’s going to introduce “total” football.
Everton V Stoke City
My pick for first manager to go not called Silva is Mr Hughes. The first game will make that one step closer to happening. I think Rooney will be a good player in the slot for Everton.
Manchester United V West Ham United
With Lukaku, Mourinho will be hoping last year’s 0-0 games will be this year’s 1-0 games. That’s about how ambitious the new Man Utd truly is…
Newcastle United V Tottenham Hotspur
Another week before we get to see Spuds at Wemberley. Already, this is a must win game for the Le Coq on a beachball team.
Southampton V Swansea City
Two teams that no one really cares about. Moving on.
Watford V Liverpool
The game of the Year. Klopp for the Chop (he’s my dark horse pick for managers to get the Emre Can) vs Silva. I’d like to say the meese have a chance and they do. Liverpool should be focusing on the Hoff in next week’s Champions League playoff.
West Bromwich Albion V Bournemouth
I have Josh King and Junior Stanislas on my fantasy team so I must like the Cherries;however, I just have a hard time betting against the Old Man Tony Pullis at home.
Not quite yet….watch this space.
It is a new season and once again it starts with me not knowing who plays where which is a bit of a disadvantage when it comes to trying to predict things. More importantly, I don’t know who’s going to be moving while the window is open – Benteke to West Ham, Sanchez to everywhere, and every team needing “4 or 5 players” except Manchester United who need 11 players and Manchester City who bought everything they needed. As a Hornets fan I do know change so I did take the time in the Summer to see who our new manager is – he apparently managed Hull last year and thinks that a Burnley substitute is worth $18m.
Despite knowing that my pre-season picks last year were a disaster, I am once again going to make my predictions.
So here we go again.
Young Player of the Year
Last year’s pick Raheem Sterling – seriously?
Ruben Loftus-Cheek would be a good choice if he didn’t play for Palace. You’re not going to keep them in the top 10 and so you won’t get your recognition. My choice this year will be Jesus though my fear is that he’ll start slow and will be gone by Christmas… the Benjamin Button Son of God.
My pick is thus:
1st, Jesus
2nd, Ruben Loftus-Cheek
3rd, Raheem Sterling (fool me thrice, why don’t you – is he still young?)
Where’s Dele Ali? He’s at Spurs.
Goalkeeper of the Year
Everton spend a lot on a keeper so either he’s the man or a bust.
1st, Jordan Pickford
2nd, David DeGea
Top Goalscorer
Spurs are playing at Wembley so their tally will go down, Man City will score in bunches but share them across all the forwards…then there’s Lukaku. I really want him to fail but I’m sure he’ll be top of the charts. Last year I picked Aguero, a rather obvious and not terrible, choice.
1st,Lukaku
2nd, Lacazette
3rd, Morata
Where’s Harry Kane? He’s at Spurs with Dele.
Best Signings
I don’t know much about many of the players signed but there was some serious money splashed about. Manchester City brought in a bus load of defenders but Watford managed to spend $8m on Cleverly… which is, not so cleverly.
Worst signing could be Liverpool – that would be Coutinho signing for Barca.
First Firing
First manager to be fired could be Silva because Watford have a stinker of a schedule to start (Liverpool) and could easily be bottom from the get go. My odds on favorite, however, is Mark “most overrated manager” Hughes who will try and lead Stoke to a no-score draw record.
It’s going to be Silva.
And finally…..The Table
Here’s my end of year table.
At Christmas?
Arsenal V Everton
Arsenal have to win to have a chance at proper European football and they will win but the win will leave them short of Klopp. The season will end with the whiny Liverpool fans (we’re not good enough) whining slightly less than the whiny Arsenal fans (Wenger out! Ozil is lazy…..). The positive is that both fans get what they want: Champions League football and a new manager respectively. It will be transitional year as ownership is discussed (Kroenke won’t sell) and Sanchez heads out to pastures greener.
Burnley V West Ham
Burnley have been great at home and terrible away. West Ham have been inconsistently good enough to stay in the Premier league relegation talk. Burnley will end with a meaningless win that moves them slightly up the table. West Ham will look for a new manager even though the problem isn’t Bilic but the club.
Chelsea V Sunderland
Sunderland are going down and it will be a challenge to bounce back with a manager that hasn’t showed any inspiration since he left. They’ve shown heart but that’s not enough when the minds and skills are on walkabout. Chelsea will stroll into the off-season with a win… John Terry will start as a direct invitation to retire already. Go away, you horrible person.
Hull V Tottenham
Hull will lose Silva to the Hornets and will give a good performance against a team that has left White Hart Lane and the League behind. Nothing to play for but the future at Spurs seems brighter than it is… next year they will struggle at Wembley to find the same home advantage as the lane. Expect them to drop to 4th or 5th.
Leicester V Bournemouth
The Foxes will end in the top half after a terrible start but more than anything it proved the two-tier division is has become. The teams at the top are just far beyond the teams at the bottom… the positions 11-20 are anyone’s on any given year.
Liverpool V Middlesbrough
Liverpool need to win and Boro have nothing to play for but pride. This should be an easy win but Boro have played tight all year and the Scousers have struggled against the bottom teams more than the top teams. I don’t expect this to be settled until very late in the game. Firmino will cement his future status at the club.
Man Utd V Crystal Palace
The Trafford U-18s against Palace in a meaningless kick-about. This isn’t your youth squad of the 90s and Palace will win.
Southampton V Stoke
Saints will go marching in to next season with mostly the same squad for a change (not sure who they have to sell this year).
Swansea V West Brom
The Welsh team will continue to make the English Premier League be an international affair… and they will play the most “English” managed teams in West Brom. I randomly pick West Brom to win after Swansea come back from the high of staying up. [Edit: Turns out I randomly picked Swansea to win but the table above formula didn’t copy]
Watford V Man City
The team that plays no defence against the team that has no defense, no manager, and nothing to play for. I predicted the lowly lowly Hornets would lose their last 6 and they’re on track.The most lop-sided game of the week….. Citeh, and KMFE, you’re welcome.