2016-2017 Prediction Scoring

After spending a lot of time last year – downloading the schedule, typing it in, managing predictions that came in random form (photos, spreadsheets, upside-down photos, handwritten, scribbled, Watford listed as West Ham, orally, on supermarket receipts, matches written in non-alphabetic order, in non-date order, in random order) and then scoring them semi-automatically in Excel I decided it would make sense to automate things.  In addition, due to the weekly nature of my posting and constant procrastination, there were occasions where the picks would come in late (though I would ask for the games before reading or hearing the result) I thought it made sense to organize the schedule.  Also, as there were requests for me to compare multiple weeks to find out who had the best overall pick rate and success rather than the simple week to week results (hint 1: it was not anyone else.  hint 2: it was me) it made sense to organize and automate.

So here we are!

I’ve created an Excel spreadsheet that mostly automates the annoying task of creating the matches, handling the scoring and producing the summaries that I was manually maintaining last year.  This means that I can focus more on writing little witty commentary or finding things online that I find amusing like the Jan Molby’s funny speech.

Features in no particular order.

Entry Picks

The schedule is made for all the games from now until the end of the year meaning that people can pick ahead if they know they are busy or won’t have time.  You could even pre-fill the entire year!
It will also mean that entries have games in the correct order with the correct teams and easy to manage!

Download the Spreadsheet to Enter games here:

https://inoffthejumper.com/file_upload/?file_name=epl_entry_1.xlsx&do=download

Scoring System

The scoring system has been updated to make it a little more like other sites:

• Exact Result = 4 pts
• Difference = 1 pts for result + 1 pt for getting the Goal Difference Correct = 2 pts
• Win =  1 pt for result
• Draw = 1 pt for result
• Incorrect = 0 pts

This is still experimental and I might change if it is not working – I’ve seen cases where the result is 2 pts but you get a bonus pt for each home/away goals that is correct.

For the purposes of generating a table based on picks any absent picks will be assigned an incorrect score as follows:

• If the result is a non-tie, the pick will be 1-0 to the losing team to ensure 0 points.
• If the result is a tie, the pick will be 1-0 to the home team to ensure 0 points.

Scoring Weeks

Games are scored in the week / round to which they belong.  This means that if a game is postponed and played at a later date it will still be counted to the week that the game belongs.  The weekly winner will be based on the games actually played; however, the final tallies will be based on the rounds as they are scheduled.  This does mean that multiple people could claim a victory to a week depending on when they want to argue and discuss it in an adult and manner.

Scoring Weekly

Scores will be announced weekly and will include all games assigned to a Round and scored as per the week.  As noted, this means that PP games will not count for the week.

The ranking is based on total points scored and ties can be awarded.  The table shows Exaxt, Draw, Difference, Win, Incorrect and Total Points.  The arrows indicate and improvement (or lack of from the prior week).

Aggregate Scoring

Aggregate scoring will be the sum of all picks to date.  The Change will be a change in position from a previous week – for example, I may do a change since Christmas type review.  In this view, your weekly result may change based on completion of any delayed or postponed games.  The official scoring for each round will only be done at end of year when all games are completed.

Chintzy Graphics

Result map

I can produce a nice result map that will show picks and their results.  The example shows highlights based purely on pick – it can also shown picks and highlight colors based on accuracy of prediction so the correct picks can be highlighted.

Pick Table

I can produce a table that shows the league as predicted and compare, position wise, to the actual table week over week!
Here you can see that I never truly jumped on the Leicester bandwagon and thought the Cherries would go down (this year, perhaps).

Position Chart

This is a weekly chart that shows positions of teams week over week.  Here we have the key teams – Spuds, Citeh, the Red Scouse, the Moosemen of Watford, and the Arses – as they were ranked in the table from beginning to end when a completely set of random scores between 3-0 and 0-3 were generated.

Any Suggestions?

Could do some cooler things.  Right now I’ve finalized the Super Computer V1.0 and have created two branches for V2.0 and V3.0.  I’ve read some interesting papers and will see if they can improve my picking in an automated way.