Week 16 – Picks

Here are the current picks minus a few stragglers.   

Current Guesses With Conspicuous Absences.

I do have AM’s picks but it’s too late to post them here right now and I will add tomorrow.  Besides, it will drive ME crazy not knowing how his arch-nemesis is doing@

Time is Running Out

This Week’s Comment

BB: “I’ve been studying the form in the mid December period of each team and their performance relatedto the position of their opponent and form over the last ten years in order to make my predictions…nah just guessed”
When you made picks for this week 3 weeks ago.

BB: “Well I doubt I’ll do as well as last week but I’m using the same system.”
When you made picks for this week yesterday.

I’m not sure what the system is… but it seems like it might be guessing.

KMFE: “Completely random, though I do think we’ll likely draw with Chelsea — they can’t be happy after losing to Wolves…”
That kind of statement won’t make Wolves fans very happy.

ME: “Just looked at my predictions and only Fulham don’t score… seems a little optimistic.. “
I’m don’t think Fulham not scoring is optimistic at all! 

Analysis

Bournemouth v Liverpool
Last week Liverpool won thanks to a Jordan Pickford moment of madness and new criticism.  It’s not new news that he has short arms.  I expect Liverpool to field a full strength squad this week after barely beating their neighbours across Stanley Park and going one down early on against Burnley with a second team.  Liverpool are approaching top spot in the Premier league but do lack some squad depth that other teams have.

Arsenal v Huddersfield
Flat track bullies.   Noted this week that Arsene has won more trophies retired than he did in the last few years with Arsenal!

Burnley v Brighton
I picked a few hours ago and I don’t remember who I picked.  Thought about going in alphabetical order but it took too much effort to go into second letter tie-breaks.  Burnley are this year what West Brom were to me last year… the team I keep thinking will turn it around.

Cardiff v Southampton
I don’t want to say that Southampton are bad but I’m picking the Welsh team.  Any clues where Sparky ends up next?  I’m looking at potential mid-table teams that might want to get relegated but don’t see any of them hiring.

Chelsea v Man City
It’s hard to pick against the mad genius.

Mad Scientist #Winning

Everton v Watford
Nothing would please a Watford fan more than defeating “30 pieces of” Silva.

We’ll Get Over it


Leicester v Tottenham
Potato chickens are staying in touch with the top which bodes well for an end of year push when they finally get to play at home.   Actually, turns out the stadium isn’t planned for use this year… except if you’re a lucky fan ready to spend some cash.  No doubt to fund some of their big summer signings that they don’t make.

Man United v Fulham
A loss at home and this ex-managerial genius can go back to Portugal. They’ll win.

Not a mad genius.. just mad.

Newcastle v Wolves
Eeny, meeny, miny, moe.

West Ham v Crystal Palace
The least important London-ish derby the year has to offer.  I really don’t care.  Maybe Zaha will fall over and get a penalty.   Maybe he’s not playing.  I don’t even know.  That’s why my prediction might be wrong.  

Week 15 – Picks

Despite my best efforts I managed to get all the games confused for the entry forms.  Initially, I had a Week 15 but had two Week 16.  Then I removed a Week 16 and added a Week 17…. if you’re following this still I managed to finally add a Week 15….

Hopefully everyone has time to add their picks – there’s not enough in my inbox to warrant creating a chart.

This is how this process felt:

I’m sure everyone has see this – the greatest own goal ever.

Or one of the greatest ever…

Or the most ridiculous ever….

Or simply the most …. well…. just watch.

Week 8 – Results

Keeping it simple this week with just the results (because no one interesting won).

And no one interesting is winning.

Next three weeks worth of picks are ready for picking – you know where the link is.

Week 6 – Picks

This week will be a short post because I didn’t spend the necessary hours preparing and researching.

We’re still missing entries from JE and LS (except he said 0-0s across the board so technically he can’t be late).

Isn’t it time I was hired again?

Of course, there are other things that are also late!  The construction is going as well as Pellegrini’s attempt to build West Ham into a meaningful team.

It’s going well – click image to see.

This weeks picks picks as of now:

Guesses

For those wondering, SC1 and SC2 are secret algorithms that I’m modifying year over year.  I can tell you that this year, SC2 is leading the way overall.  Pretty soon I will set it loose on one of the gambling houses that sponsor one of the EPL teams.. profit and retire!

Seriously. This doesn’t worry anyone?

This Weeks Factoid
I don’t have a factoid submitted this week so I thought I’d ask a trivia question.

Which current premier league goalkeeper has jumped higher than the crossbar?

This Weeks Comments

AM:”Get my predictions done early. Off on another golfing jaunt – Devon this time & if I leave this until I am in company with that crowd, the job will NEVER get done. This weeks matches seem to be a pretty straight forward lot to predict, so there you have them! 😉 What can possibly go wrong!? Stop press: One late change – BHA 1-0 win over Spurs to a 1-1 draw, that means it will probably end in a Spurs win!! :-(“

Bringing in the whole comment here so I can do some psycho-analysis and translation:

  1. Going to drink so much in Devon that I might pick Southampton over Liverpool so better do them now!
  2. I’m super over-confident like Mourinho
  3. I want to defeat ME and I want his team to suffer a loss so that I will complete the perfect trifecta this week!  (Golf, Beer, and ME humiliation)

BB: “Man City looked pants without Kevin DB”
KMFE agrees!  Citeh without Kevin is like the rainy city center without bucket-hat wearing scallies and wags taking drugs at a Madchester rave and getting into a fight.  In other words, grim.

BB: “BTW – Ibrahimovic – what a great 500th goal.”
Totally missed that – so thanks:

Think Messi’s 500th for Barcelona was a better goal:

 

ME: “Chris Hughton will offer Spuds a lifeline this week… another loss will be disastrous!”
Looking for that potato chicken alumni help?  It has come to this for Spuds fans?

ME: “Arsenal may have turned a corner… at least I hope so!”
Has BE hacked this account?  Or entered picks as you given that there is little hack prevention currently employed 🙂

Analysis
And give away my advantage?  I don’t think so!  Anyway, I reserve the rights to change my guesses before the games and I’m very much undecided on whether the hornet moosemen can beat Fulham away – have this feeling that Mitrovic will bang in a brace.

Week 4 – Picks

Most of the picks are in – remember that you can always change your mind up until kick-off.

Full Set of Predictions

AB’s Fun Factoid

Unfortunately, we don’t have one this week.  So the question is – who is the youngest player to score in the Premier League?

Clue 1:  It wasn’t  Jason Dozzell  who scored for Ipswich against Coventry at age 16 years and 57 days

Clue 2:  He did it playing for Everton.

Clue 3:  It’s not who you thought after reading Clue 2.

This Week’s Comments

LJ: “Ambitious prediction for the Reds game but I’m sticking with it”
No one knows these days with the Reds – sometimes they look like they can score at will.  Can you imagine if they had two Mo’s?

Image result for salah lookalike
There’s Only One Mo Salah?!

JE: “I can’t believe I’m picking a United win again.”
To be fair, they are playing Burnley

ME: “Arsenal will improve on their form and put Cardiff to the sword…maybe I’m still thinking about the team from a few years ago!!”
Spoken like a true Spuds fan.

ME:”Watford’s run will come to end…hope I don’t have to eat my words!”
Really spoken like a true potato chicken fan.  Hope you’re wrong!

KMFE:”Shakhtar, Lyon and Hoffenheim?! If you’d asked me, I wouldn’t have even thought any of them were in the Champions League. ”
You’ll need the easy teams without Kev.  Bit easier than the Liverpool group with PSG, Belgrade, and Napoli!

AA:”Last week. I actually tried to make educated-esque choices. It may have been my worst result”
First lesson you will learn is that the more you know about football the worse you will perform.  This explains LJs performance week after week and year after year (or so he insists!)

BE: “Today I’m going for the 4-4-2 system. Four home wins, four aways and two draws……but not necessarily in the right order. Before JE says it….not necessarily all the right results either!”
I thought I would post the referenced link.

This Week’s Summary

Due to the fact that I randomly selected numbers this week I don’t have any real analysis to share.

Preseason Table

This was my pre-season pick table.  Frankly, this was obviously predicted after 3 too many beers because Man City aren’t really going to get to 100 points this year (again).

I’m generally comfortable with the order though Watford are a little high (I’m thinking 4th from bottom) and Everton are higher than expected as I thought they’d be a bottom half-team.

Playing Silly Buggers Prediction

I do see Wolves and Fulham both staying up though… but poor Cardiff… they have to leave because this is the English Premier League! It’s why Swansea went last year!*

I can also see Palace finishing a little higher as they don’t have a terrible team and I’m surprised I have Arsenal still falling out of the Top 6.

So maybe I’m not generally comfortable with the order.

Let the games begin.

*I have no issue with Cardiff being in the Premier League  Just a silly joke.

And the Head to Heads…..

Find the head-to-head you want below.  I’m not going to comment on these because there are too many.

The left is comparing week to week results and the right is comparing all picks for all games.  As you can see – there are a LOT of draws.

How did you compare to the Champion BE?

Clue: It rhymes with Zoo Cost and is an anagram of yuo lsto.

How did ME fare against AM?

Clue: It rhymes with Zoo Cost and is an anagram of yuo lsto.
Clue 2: It’s the same as your results against BE
Clue 3:And others
























































And the Final Tables are.

I’m sure you’ve wondered how the table would have looked if all your results were completely accurate.  Who would have one the league (you’d think we’d all have realized at some point that Citeh would win)?  Who would come last?  Do we favour our own teams?  Let’s find out.

Most Accurate Table (Only 38 of 38 weeks)
It shouldn’t be a surprise that the winner had the most accurate table.   It’s fairly even across the board with the lower end and higher end biases as you’d expect in a prediction game.  The big anomalies were Crystal Palace and Watford (this will be a theme).

Most Accurate Table (Only 35 of 38 weeks)
LS seems to think he had a terrible year but in the 35 games picked his table reflected the final table quite accurately – getting the Top 6 and the Bottom 2.  The biggest delta was again… the Hornet Moosemen

You’ve Got to Be Kidding Table
I don’t know who this ME guy is but I think it’s safe to say he’s somewhat biased showing a rather optimistic view of Spuds.  It’s probably not unreasonable to suggest his loss to the arch-nemesis AM may have come as a direct result of the nonsense that is a season that has the “super invincibles” – a team that wins 98% of it’s games!   

You’ve Got to Be Kidding Table (Runner Up)
I really don’t understand anyone who thinks a Jose team will ever score 104 points in a year.

My Table
I would say that this table is pretty decent outside of my constant belief over the winter break that the Hornets would step out of their slump.  They didn’t.  I was also fooled by WBA who I consistently believed were better than they were (or better than they played at least).

The Rest
Impressed that you actually stayed honest with your picks and put Citeh ahead of the Reds.  Watford too high.

No surprises here….Watford too high..

Watford too high…..but a Liverpool fan are you?  You’re in the Europa League and United are 2nd?  This is the pick against Liverpool theory you’ve mentioned – you might lose the game but at least you get the pick… if you win the game who cares about the pick!

All year your picks are better than your results.

Average Tables and Slip
The below is the average table and the slippage that we collectively picked.

Watford too high!!!!!

And The Winners Is…. Standard Scoring

Finally the results are up – the winner of the season are as shown!

This is confusing but I’ve created tables so that everyone can see where they ranked for all the weeks that they played.  Six of us managed to pick every single week.  If I do this again next year I’ll probably come up with some default method of scoring – default to 0-0 draws.

And the Winner IS BE!

What?

Some interesting take-aways here.

Despite losing in the regular point scoring system, I actually won using the alternate points system.  I will take this as I know that during discussions we actually all agreed that this was the fairest scoring system as it accounts for getting number of goals correct  (i.e. picking a 1-1 draw when it’s 3-1 would score a point).

We had also discussed the scoring bias for draws and there is show to be true with the current system.

Next year the alternate scoring system.

You win a great prize:

Deconstructed Bomb!

Unfortunately, if you are not here to pick it up in person it goes to the next placed position.  That would be 2nd… and it’s ME!

There is also a runner-up prize:

The runner-up also needs to be here in person and they are…. because it’s ME!

How did you Compare
Trying to keep things a fair comparison – these tables show how you finished in the games where you played.

AM will be happy because he will probably win a prize (donated by ME) I don’t know what it is but it will look something like this:

Local Prize

And here are the rest…. it’s very disappointing to see ME at the bottom so much.

Luckily we have LJ to prop us all up.

What about Mark Lawrenson and the Super Computer?

I can’t be sure to get all Lawro’s picks correct because sometimes the picks don’t get published but it’s the best I can do.  The Supercomputers feature heavily in the top half of the table.   Last year’s “winner” was SC3 and despite a very poor start to the year it slowly climbed up the table.

This year BE held off the human and automated challengers.

Tomorrow I will post your tables and the head-to-heads and maybe  a few comments.