So the schedule has been messed up by the so-called “mid-season player break” but I’m trying to keep up with things. I know that Watford don’t need this because they have a “mid-game player break” every week.
Here are the picks:
Weekly Comments AA: ” In under the wire for Watford (who have become my sentimental favourite this season btw.) “ Please don’t do this. Life is already hard enough without adding that to it!
Why Picks Are Hard Part 2 Picks are hard because it’s almost impossible to predict the mental state of 22 players at any given time. No one knows when a player will launch into a red-card lunge… when a player will holds their hand in an unnatural position in a box for an opposing team to kick the ball into. No one knows when a player will fall asleep and let a striker in…
The key is to focus on exceptions like:
Watford will always have someone who wants the opposition to score and failing that will score for them
Andre Grey and players of his quality will always miss.
Watford will find a way to not win
Current Standings After 3 Games Some variety in there!
This year has been somewhat of a challenge in terms of picks and this week is yet another week where we had a last-to-first transition.
Last week I scored a massively useless 3 points (a total which should have been 11 points as explained in my post) that sunk me to the bottom of the table and this week a not too shabby 13 points led me to the heights of success.
The biggest indicator of the volatility of results is how positions have shifted with a top half of green arrows and a bottom half of red arrows.
ME continues to lead but LJ is nipping at his heals. The Super Computers are still performing well with all three sitting in the top half of the table.
JE: “I’m rubbish at predicting scores really crap!” AA: “Guessy McGuessersen of guesstown!” ME: “Because of time restraints I have had to guess the rest…”
There seems to be a common theme across comments this year. There is definitely a level of honesty and self-realization on the part of some but I tend to think that there is a level of humble-brag on the part of a few!
ME: “But Spuds will just pip Man Pretty as they have a very settled squad, no injuries and the best manager….not, not and not. “
But you picked Spuds to win like you do every single week. I think this does provide evidence that you do guess! You’re just luckier than all of us!
First things first. Here were the predictions. AB didn’t pick this week so he got the honor of being Mark Lawrenson for the day.
I calculated the scores earlier in the week but as you can see I was less than happy to have to post them. I’m not sure but a 14 point differential between first and last may be the biggest ever.
To fall 12 places in a week is very disappointing but I do feel a little bit better seeing that JE only claimed 1 spot above me. It’s been a bad couple of weeks for the Trafford fan.
Weekly Comments Thank you for your comments. I’ll try and incorporate them again in the coming weeks.
This Weeks Retrospective Analysis I thought I’d write my analysis for the week so that I could learn from my mistakes and improve in the future. Feel free to use this tactic.
Aston Villa vs Watford 1-1 Villa will win 2-1 but it will upset Harry Hornet if I pick against my team!
Bournemouth vs Brighton 1-1 The cherries should win handily but I there have been draws recently
Everton vs Newcastle 2-1 I suspect that Everton’s run will come to an end but I’m not picking that
Leicester vs West Ham 2-0 Finally a gimme result. Not sure what the score will be so I’ll guess.
Sheffield Utd vs Man City 0-2 Could be anything! Pretty sure the Citeh will win though
Wolves vs Liverpool 2-2 An obvious 1-2 pick but I really want Liverpool to not win. Man Utd vs Burnley 2-0 OGS has this team turned around – they’re back to the Glory Glory Man United days! They’re unstoppable with Lingard up front. Chelsea vs Arsenal 2-1 Fat Frank will guide them to a victory.
Spurs vs Norwich 2-0 This result is dependent on Ericsen showing up. If he doesn’t it will probably be 2-1.
Next Weeks Analysis Copy whatever the Supercomputers are doing. You would think I might know what the method is but I need to do some algorithm study. All I know is that SC2 is doing really well and SC1 has had a few first places recently…. I should really just copy SC1 at this point.
Leaving me in the dust…. the robots they are alive…
Why Picks are Hard Reason 1 I thought I’d start a new feature!
This week it’s understanding where players are – both physically and in their head. It’s hard enough to keep track of who is playing for who sometimes. Even harder is to know when someone is truly playing.
This year’s example is Eriksen. He has been “playing” for Spuds all year but has he been trying? Who knows! Well… he’s off to Italy where that effort will be appreciated.
It’s a big Happy Birthday to JE this week .. hopefully he’ll get a big fat present in Manchester United creating an upset at Anfield. Last week he was the big winner so we will see how he does.
JE: “Don’t know why I have united beating liverpool….. In fact I don’t know why I have chosen these results. Another guess week. Like every week. “ Let’s see how it goes – I’m fairly sure you threw a point away!
ME: “My support for your moosemen stops this week for obvious reasons…but it will be close!” Let’s see. Bit of a mixed bag of picks for this game.
There’s a lot going on here – there are three rounds worth of picks!
Week 19 Good week for yours truly and terrible for the former leader LJ. I think SC1 needs a little reprogramming!
Week 20 Here are the picks and the results!
Looks like the reprogramming was slightly successful but all the supercomputers kind of middling out. ANOTHER good week for ME who must be extending his lead at the top. Looks like JE is making a turnaround as well
Week 21 This is the first game of the New Year!
Looks like Watford are making a turnaround. A winning week for KMFE but once again ME finds himself near the top. It doesn’t look like the AM vs ME challenge is going to be close this year!
Two last places in a row for BE! I don’t see much success in the future with a weekly total equal to what Arsenal managed!
By the end of today we will have half of a season in the books – except for one name due to the Qatar-Gives-Us-Money Cup that Liverpool played in. I think they won but I can’t be sure and don’t really care.
JE: “Merry Xmas indeed. Was pleased for you last weekend for both Watford and philly. “ I’m sure that came after some anti-OGS feelings!
AA: “I was thrilled for Watford this past week. Also for the Eagles, though I don’t have much hope that the run will continue. At least we beat Dallas though!” I think all I wanted for Christmas in the NFL was for the Eagles to beat Dallas. If they make the play-offs they’re not going far but better than the Bears!
AM: “Happy Christmas one & all.” And to you as well!
BE: “Sheffield might do better than Manchester Utd., let’s hope the knives don’t come out and they don’t slice up the moose. This is just a ‘ urggh’ comment for you JE”. I’m not sure I understand the murderous comments! I think we’re saying the Man United are dreadful because they lost to a worse Watford?
BE: “I dont think Arsenal know how to get the ball in the net” That makes sense!
This Weeks Analysis
I usually do poorly when I make my analysis but it’s been a while so I thought I’d give a Christmas peak in to the mind of how JCE makes his picks!
Aston Villa FC v Norwich City FC I don’t know… Villa score sometimes and Norwich are bad
AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal FC I don’t think Arsenal know how to win
Chelsea FC v Southampton FC I hate that Chelsea are decent but what can I do?
Crystal Palace FC v West Ham United FC Ugh… the home team?
Everton FC v Burnley FC I don’t hate Everton now that Silva is gone. What a stupid managerial pick. Whatever.
Leicester City FC v Liverpool FC Liverpool will win by 2 or more but surely if I pick against them they might lose. If Klopp goes on the field to celebrate again – will the referee please actually follow the laws and book the twat.
Manchester United FC v Newcastle United FC Home team. Who cares?
Sheffield United FC v Watford FC Watford are getting better but they won’t win
Tottenham Hotspur FC v Brighton & Hove Albion FC A sack of potatoes could beat the Gulls but there’s a hole in the sack.
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC v Manchester City FC Surely if I pick all the teams that might catch liverpool it might work.
Final Thought of the Day Do commentators realize that the World Club Champions means less than the Charity Shield runners-up game?
Can the commentators that anoint all the players to be the best in the world – Arnold, for example… and say that Jordan Henderson is fabulously underrated and world class… explain why England are so bad?
Games come thick and fast this time of year which is hard enough to track but then we have the added complication of Liverpool playing in the let’s normalize Qatar with a made up “Club World Cup” competition which messed up the Premier League schedule.
Funny how FIFA wants to kick racism out of the game but are quite comfortable with human rights’ abuses.
I should go ahead and hand the victory to ME as he can’t lose at this point…so Congratulations!
Thanks for playing everyone (note: this week Mark Lawrenson subbed for AB)
AM: “Pick the bones out of that. Late entry but not looked at anything, not even sure who’s playing who & when. Happy Christmas.”
Mr AM – the who is playing who can be found out simply by reading the team on the left and the team on the right that is even with it, see blue circles. The when is indicated approximately by the date.
JE: “Lying in bed thinking. Shit I need to do my scores… gone for a big statement and a 0-3 win for united at Watford. Watch me get it completely wrong. If so merry Xmas. “
Merry Christmas. You got it totally wrong.
AA : “Also, I find football data fundamentally fascinating. Not sure what that says about me.”
It does not make you unusual for sure, there is a site I once looked into for data and they capture everything that is possibly to be captured- passes, headers, possession, distance run, goals, minute-by-minute analysis. That’s before you get into index/spread betting. Note: No one do this without understanding what you are doing – I don’t want to be responsible for homelessness or your families wondering what shopfront is your new home.
ME: I have Spurs beating Chelski but this could be a real challenge for the Jose boys…
Wrong! This is why you had a run of bad results
ME: I have Watford beating Utd because they looked very good last week…a bit of luck and they could do it!
Correct! This is why you’re winning!
Overall Midish Season Rankings
More to come but here are the standings heavily dominated by the Computers. It mirrors the Premier League quite well… domination at the top…. abomination at the bottom (sorry) and close in the middle…it’s almost like a statistical distribution.
I’ll publish more next week when we hit the mid-point.