Preseason Table

This was my pre-season pick table.  Frankly, this was obviously predicted after 3 too many beers because Man City aren’t really going to get to 100 points this year (again).

I’m generally comfortable with the order though Watford are a little high (I’m thinking 4th from bottom) and Everton are higher than expected as I thought they’d be a bottom half-team.

Playing Silly Buggers Prediction

I do see Wolves and Fulham both staying up though… but poor Cardiff… they have to leave because this is the English Premier League! It’s why Swansea went last year!*

I can also see Palace finishing a little higher as they don’t have a terrible team and I’m surprised I have Arsenal still falling out of the Top 6.

So maybe I’m not generally comfortable with the order.

Let the games begin.

*I have no issue with Cardiff being in the Premier League  Just a silly joke.

And the Head to Heads…..

Find the head-to-head you want below.  I’m not going to comment on these because there are too many.

The left is comparing week to week results and the right is comparing all picks for all games.  As you can see – there are a LOT of draws.

How did you compare to the Champion BE?

Clue: It rhymes with Zoo Cost and is an anagram of yuo lsto.

How did ME fare against AM?

Clue: It rhymes with Zoo Cost and is an anagram of yuo lsto.
Clue 2: It’s the same as your results against BE
Clue 3:And others
























































And the Final Tables are.

I’m sure you’ve wondered how the table would have looked if all your results were completely accurate.  Who would have one the league (you’d think we’d all have realized at some point that Citeh would win)?  Who would come last?  Do we favour our own teams?  Let’s find out.

Most Accurate Table (Only 38 of 38 weeks)
It shouldn’t be a surprise that the winner had the most accurate table.   It’s fairly even across the board with the lower end and higher end biases as you’d expect in a prediction game.  The big anomalies were Crystal Palace and Watford (this will be a theme).

Most Accurate Table (Only 35 of 38 weeks)
LS seems to think he had a terrible year but in the 35 games picked his table reflected the final table quite accurately – getting the Top 6 and the Bottom 2.  The biggest delta was again… the Hornet Moosemen

You’ve Got to Be Kidding Table
I don’t know who this ME guy is but I think it’s safe to say he’s somewhat biased showing a rather optimistic view of Spuds.  It’s probably not unreasonable to suggest his loss to the arch-nemesis AM may have come as a direct result of the nonsense that is a season that has the “super invincibles” – a team that wins 98% of it’s games!   

You’ve Got to Be Kidding Table (Runner Up)
I really don’t understand anyone who thinks a Jose team will ever score 104 points in a year.

My Table
I would say that this table is pretty decent outside of my constant belief over the winter break that the Hornets would step out of their slump.  They didn’t.  I was also fooled by WBA who I consistently believed were better than they were (or better than they played at least).

The Rest
Impressed that you actually stayed honest with your picks and put Citeh ahead of the Reds.  Watford too high.

No surprises here….Watford too high..

Watford too high…..but a Liverpool fan are you?  You’re in the Europa League and United are 2nd?  This is the pick against Liverpool theory you’ve mentioned – you might lose the game but at least you get the pick… if you win the game who cares about the pick!

All year your picks are better than your results.

Average Tables and Slip
The below is the average table and the slippage that we collectively picked.

Watford too high!!!!!

And The Winners Is…. Standard Scoring

Finally the results are up – the winner of the season are as shown!

This is confusing but I’ve created tables so that everyone can see where they ranked for all the weeks that they played.  Six of us managed to pick every single week.  If I do this again next year I’ll probably come up with some default method of scoring – default to 0-0 draws.

And the Winner IS BE!

What?

Some interesting take-aways here.

Despite losing in the regular point scoring system, I actually won using the alternate points system.  I will take this as I know that during discussions we actually all agreed that this was the fairest scoring system as it accounts for getting number of goals correct  (i.e. picking a 1-1 draw when it’s 3-1 would score a point).

We had also discussed the scoring bias for draws and there is show to be true with the current system.

Next year the alternate scoring system.

You win a great prize:

Deconstructed Bomb!

Unfortunately, if you are not here to pick it up in person it goes to the next placed position.  That would be 2nd… and it’s ME!

There is also a runner-up prize:

The runner-up also needs to be here in person and they are…. because it’s ME!

How did you Compare
Trying to keep things a fair comparison – these tables show how you finished in the games where you played.

AM will be happy because he will probably win a prize (donated by ME) I don’t know what it is but it will look something like this:

Local Prize

And here are the rest…. it’s very disappointing to see ME at the bottom so much.

Luckily we have LJ to prop us all up.

What about Mark Lawrenson and the Super Computer?

I can’t be sure to get all Lawro’s picks correct because sometimes the picks don’t get published but it’s the best I can do.  The Supercomputers feature heavily in the top half of the table.   Last year’s “winner” was SC3 and despite a very poor start to the year it slowly climbed up the table.

This year BE held off the human and automated challengers.

Tomorrow I will post your tables and the head-to-heads and maybe  a few comments.

Final Calculations Are Done! But nothing revealed..

So looking at the data I noticed that my final table didn’t match the actual table.  I had given Watford an extra win over Chelsea, I had Southampton and West Ham scoring more goals than they did against each other and a few hiccups here and there.  It took me while to go through all 38 weeks worth of games to get everything perfectly right and I’m happy to announce that I’m done.

This effort and re-calculation did have a rather interesting impact on some of the positions – I’ll let AM and ME figure out what this means for their respective free/expensive beer consumption!  There will also be some controversy at the top of the tables when the winners are revealed.

Not actual Size.

Luckily I am the Commissioner!!

I will post the full results tomorrow or the day after with the following:

  • Your record against others for all games
  • Your table versus the actual table (you thought 100 points was impressive? Wait until you see some of the predictions!)
  • Your record in the league table where you actually picked (I’ll try to do this)
  • The winners
  • The losers
  • The best
  • The worst
  • What did the Supercomputers do this year and how will the algorithms be updated?
  • And anything else you ask

This week’s final results:

Congrats JE!

Well done JE and I’m not sure but AM may regret this week…

Week ? – Which is Actually Weeks 31 and 35

So there are a few more games this week thrown in on a Tuesday.

This week there are a few critical games.

At the Bottom
Somewhere West Brom fans are hoping for a Leicester miracle but it’s unlikely that Swansea and Southampton will play to a draw and then both lose their final game.   The Boing-Boings will lose the spring in their step sooner or later and have to hope they can Boing their way back up next year.

WBA and Stoke and ?

There is still a chance that Huddersfield could be relegated.  They end the season against Chelsea (who really want to win) and Arsenal (who will be sending off Arsene) so are staring two defeats in a row.  If I were them I would be hoping for Southampton inflicting a heavy defeat on the Swans.   The EPL would finally be truly the EPL by losing the Welsh… but then Cardiff is waiting in the wings!  I don’t care but why call it the EPL?  Will Gerrard get Rangers promoted to the EPL – or will he just get his ex-gaffer’s job.

I’m Going to Manage the Best Team In Glasgow one day!

At the Top

It’s a done deal for Citeh but they are still two wins from the triple digit points so will be looking to score more goals than they did against Huddersfield.

Who’s Going to Europe?

It’s getting tight with (scraping wins) Chelsea team and (stuttering) Spurs team still able to leapfrog Liverpool into the Top 4.  There is something romantic about winning the Champions League without ever actually being a Champion and not qualifying for the next year’s CL.

Harry Kane has gone a little cold and will be praying for a few crucial goals.

Please Let Me Score

In Other News

In other (good) news, SAF is up and talking about his results after suffering a brain hemorrhage.  No word on whether he has given any nurses the hair dryer treatment yet.  It’s nice to see some of the managerial acrimony put on pause for a change.

I’m Not Done Yet!

Also Wenger won a mini-league trophy!

It Shrunk in the Wash

Wenger managed his last game at home.

Everyone seems to think he was forced out (he was) and everyone seems to think he’ll manage somewhere else (he’s hungry)…. but it’s hard to re-dedicate yourself to someone else after you’ve given your life to them.  It’s not like he’s had a bit of Monaco on the side… or had a mistress in Marseille.  Let’s see if the Arse cock this up by bringing in an unqualified former player in the hopes of former glory.  Arteta – he’s been an assistant, he’ll do.  At least they don’t have the grand Moyesy succession plan!

Your comments

Sorry that I won’t be using all your comments this week – I do read each and every one of them.  There is also a comment option on each post if you’re interested in that (assuming you’ve read this far – I don’t have any evidence of that because I don’t use any tracking software).

I will use one though
AM: “Nothing can Possibly go wrong!!”
You got that prediction wrong!  1-0?

Man U

Weekly Results – Delay

Delay in producing results for last week and preview of picks this week.

I’m on Holiday:

https://www.experiencegr.com/things-to-do/beer-city/

Week 34 – Double Game Week

If you know anything about Fantasy Football you will know that this week is a double game week meaning that there are a run of close games.

Please pick for Tuesday while you’re here on the site.

Lazy this week because I went out for Ramen and a Show (both pretty decent).  Will post all the actual predictions this weekend.   Will try to think of an amusing sub-plot.  Right now?  I’m yawning and yearning for sleep…… so here’s a quick stream-of-consciousness.

Weekly Comments

AM:Let’s give this runaway train a little more momentum! So looking forward to the first LWGC v KGC match in June & sharing a beer with ME!. . . . :-)”
There’s no runaway train in the head-to-head match up between the two of you.  I think whoever wins should buy the other their own beer.  Here’s how things stand right now at a game level.

Head to Head

BE: “Some pretty unexpected results in Europe as well! It’s not that we are bad at trying to predict the results, it’s just that the teams don’t play to their potential or don’t put their best team out, or the referees make a mistake, or someone gets sent off or injured……..”
This sounds like the comment from someone losing and not someone winning!  Or an Arsenal fan…or even bit Jose-ish.  I find the issue is that teams tend to allow too many goals in the last minutes ruining perfect scores.  I’m 100% certain I would be winning if games ended at 88 mins.

KMFE: “asdb c asawrfxkhas sdaalsdc hcoasdanzazz zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz”
Someone went out late to see OMD and was barely alive when entering their picks!  Let’s see how you do….

LJ: “Chelski will record a flurry of draws in the business end of the season.”
Maybe but who’s going to win the CL?  Liverpool to slay Roma and defeat the Germans in the final? Slay Roma  and have Salah outperform Ronaldo?

I’m taking Madrid over Liverpool 3-1 in the final though I’m hoping for a Liverpool win.   I would love to be in Trafford (just outside of Manchester) if Citeh won the league, Liverpool won CL.  Of course the FA Cup matters.

ME: “I fully expect Man Pretty to play their socks off… hoping Spurs can withstand and score a couple of breakaway goals.”
I do prefer JE’s name for Citeh… and I should note that if they play their socks off it’s unlikely that Spurs will win so bit of a wild-card pick.

ME: “United and Liverpool should dominate if they have proper teams on the field! ”
Sounding a lot like BE… are you copying again?  Better watch it or AM will accuse you two of match-fixing or tampering.

AB: “Who ate all the pies?”
I don’t remember when you said that as it was a few weeks back…. but don’t go eating pies on the TV or you’ll get in serious trouble!

http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/43753590

Quick Picks

Let’s hope we all do better this week!  I don’t remember what I picked so I’m not sure how my analysis will impact my scores and how it will impact teams so that they don’t play to their potential or don’t put their best team out, or the referees make a mistake, or someone gets sent off or injured…

Burnley V Leicester City
Both teams are safe.  Burnley has not been the defensive team they were earlier in the year but Mahrez on a two game drought and Vardy only shows up against top tier teams… Burnley is in 7th??!?  Vardy with a brace in a non-winning cause.

Crystal Palace V Brighton & Hove Albion
CP have been doing well without results so at home they should win.  But you know what they say about teams that should win?  Sometimes they don’t play to their potential or the referees make mistakes.   The most likely mistake is Zaha getting a penalty he doesn’t deserve… so Palace take it.

Huddersfield Town V Watford
Everyone keeps saying Watford are safe but they aren’t.  Watford will keep this tight looking for one more important point.  In the 95th minute the Terriers will score.

Liverpool V Bournemouth
Who knows?  Salah probably won’t play… after an exciting week in Europe… a lack-luster result is due.

Manchester United V West Bromwich Albion
WBA are doing everything they can to avoid playing Wolves next year.  Lambs to the slaughter.  A win here and a Citeh loss and we’re looking at a 7point gap… exciting end to the season?

Newcastle United V Arsenal
The only reason anyone cares about this game is to see if Aubameyang scores… he won’t but Wellbeck is Wellgood.

Southampton V Chelsea
Flurry of draws.  I’m tired and what LJ said sounds like the words of a professional prognosticator.  How can he or I get Mark Lawrenson’s job?

Swansea City V Everton
Sam Allardyce needs to go.  Swansea have Jose Junior and appear to be heading to safety.

Tottenham Hotspur V Manchester City
Symbolically speaking: Kane (Cain/Cane) is evil.  Jesus is good.  Citeh win!
Normally speaking: Kane at home and Citeh on the ropes. CIteh win!
You’re a Citeh fan called KMFE: Citeh Win!
You’re a Spurs fan called ME: Spurs Win!
Toss a coin.

West Ham United V Stoke City
Despite my desire to see the Hammers go down…they aren’t.

 

Week 33 Results

Just results. It’s taken me ages just to get the input forms for the end of season run-in where games are randomly moved around.

UPDATE:
I posted the wrong weekly result and didn’t get AM and AB picks in the table so I’ve deleted the post details and started over.

Still no movement in the season table but that has to be due to this being collectively the worst set of picks of the year.

Really Bad Guesses
Told You The Guesses were Bad

Unfortunately this means that LS did not win after all!  It also means that ME not only beat AM but sits atop the table with a MASSIVE 8 points which is normally enough for his mid-table finish.

Sorry for the mix-up

Week 32 Results

Predictions from last week:

Guesses

It appears my summary tactics from last week were a success as I posted a high score.   This didn’t seem like a challenging week from a pick standpoint but it was still surprising to see that we only had a lone player with a single-digit score.  Well done AM!

Leaders

So – another tied win for me but not enough to really close the gap on BE. [Edit: As pointed out in Week 33 entries it was also a good week for KMFE a weekly winner  who loses the alphabetic tie-breaker but wins on the Alt-Points tie-breaker system.  Congrats]

Don’t forget picks.  Analysis tomorrow and some comments on the midweek Champions League.