Week 9 – Picks

Apologies for the lack of additional analysis on the games this week. I chose pizza and beer over intellectualizing.

Picks

Results so Far (up to and not including Liverpool leading 1-0 at Huddersfield at half-time)

Week 8 – Picks

Bit of a fubar this week as I put the games to be played on 10/5 and forgot to check for Friday games.  I had become complacent as we had settled into a regular weekend schedule.

Results have been defaulted to 0-0 for AA.

Guesses

Not much to say this week except that one person (shall remain nameless) picked Watford to win at home against Bournemouth and then shamelessly re-entered picks to change it to a draw.

There was also a pick that came in very late for the Brighton vs West Ham came that is under investigation for suspicious picking!  The commissioner will be looking into this!

Sorry for the mess.  I will be posting entry forms for next week tomorrow.

Week 7 – Results

This week’s theme is never give up.

Here’s how the table look at the end of the day Saturday.

Looking Up
Time to Get Better Results

Here’s how the table shifted as the final two games came home and the bottom dwellers moved above mid-table.

Looking Up and Down

NEVER give up.

Here’s where the current aggregate rankings are.

Overall

Week 7 – Picks

Here are the weeks.  Just one left to pick – see if you can guess who!

Tough Guesses This Week

This Weeks Comments

AM: No time for idle chat this week. Ryder Cup looming so gotta get to bed, up early – first tee time UK time is 07:10. Go Europe. 🙂
Looks like Europe got up late on the first day.  Here’s hoping it’s a friendly affair as I’m a bit tired of it ending up like a Duncan Ferguson era Merseyside derby.

BB: “I did enjoy the look that Mourinho gave Pogba at the training ground. I think that there may be a little bit of resentment setting in with regard to their relationship. ”
I know you like to rewrite song lyrics so here we go trying with Never Tear Us Apart (INXS):

“Don’t ask Jose
What you know is true
Don’t have to tell you
I drop you as vice-captain
I was managing
You were there
Two egos collided
And our looks could tear us apart”

 

Pretty crappy effort.

ME: I can’t find Spuds v Watford in the fixtures!😊
Well since our 2nd team lost to your 1st and 1/2 team in the Milk Cup we won’t be meeting again in that competition.

ME: Spuds must show a really positive attitude and get a good result! Please….
Getting desperate.. where are your team playing their next game? Milton Keynes again?

KMFE: Trying an experiment this week picking with odds quoted by the newly-legal sports books in NJ and other states… Let’s see how right they are…
Not a bad strategy.  Betwin.com finished quite well last year as I tracked them week over week!  Good luck – if it works you could automate this!

For those that don’t know when we were in NY we saw loads of these posters as they just made gambling on sports legal in the USA (kind of).

Click Link For More information

AA: Insert witty, informed-sounding comment about strikers and loaned players, criticism of managers and tut tuts about that one player who can’t seem to keep from falling apart at exactly the wrong moment. Followed up by slightly off-colour inside joke

Looks like Aaron Ramsey’s contract renewal has hit a snag and he may go on a free transfer at the end of the year.  He could go on loan like Wilshere last year in order to gain regular first team injuries as Unai Emery doesn’t seem to understand he’s the critical link man.    In other news, Chelsea released their tactics recently not realizing that they have an infinite loop.

 

Infinite Loop

And I think I’ve discovered what’s wrong with Sanchez!

The inspiration for this is the following amusing video….not quite Fenton but not bad.

The following is how long I spent making my picks this week:

Week 6 – Results

Well, I got some late entries from JE and LS to make this another week of complete picks.  The full selections:

Final Selections

It seems that the extra time to prepare gave JE too much time to second-guess and finish a fairly low 8th; however, Mr LS too full advantage of the time and finished top for the week. This was an incredible 10 place jump from last week!

I don’t know how he convinced the linesman to fall asleep for Arsenal’s second and exact-points scoring goal but it worked.  I feel cheated!

Weekly Winners

It was a better week for AM in his quest for a repeat over ME with a jump of 8 places.

Aggregate

The arbitrary table of points.  I might give more points for 7th and below to help some of you out.

Season so far

When you watch the EPLthis week I want you realize how lucky we are to see high quality football rather than what is played in other parts of the world.

I do appreciate everyone sending them in as it makes this interesting for me.

Note:  Looks like Watford’s 2nd string lost to Spuds 1st and a 1/2 team on penalties in the Milk Cup.

Week 6 – Picks

This week will be a short post because I didn’t spend the necessary hours preparing and researching.

We’re still missing entries from JE and LS (except he said 0-0s across the board so technically he can’t be late).

Isn’t it time I was hired again?

Of course, there are other things that are also late!  The construction is going as well as Pellegrini’s attempt to build West Ham into a meaningful team.

It’s going well – click image to see.

This weeks picks picks as of now:

Guesses

For those wondering, SC1 and SC2 are secret algorithms that I’m modifying year over year.  I can tell you that this year, SC2 is leading the way overall.  Pretty soon I will set it loose on one of the gambling houses that sponsor one of the EPL teams.. profit and retire!

Seriously. This doesn’t worry anyone?

This Weeks Factoid
I don’t have a factoid submitted this week so I thought I’d ask a trivia question.

Which current premier league goalkeeper has jumped higher than the crossbar?

This Weeks Comments

AM:”Get my predictions done early. Off on another golfing jaunt – Devon this time & if I leave this until I am in company with that crowd, the job will NEVER get done. This weeks matches seem to be a pretty straight forward lot to predict, so there you have them! 😉 What can possibly go wrong!? Stop press: One late change – BHA 1-0 win over Spurs to a 1-1 draw, that means it will probably end in a Spurs win!! :-(“

Bringing in the whole comment here so I can do some psycho-analysis and translation:

  1. Going to drink so much in Devon that I might pick Southampton over Liverpool so better do them now!
  2. I’m super over-confident like Mourinho
  3. I want to defeat ME and I want his team to suffer a loss so that I will complete the perfect trifecta this week!  (Golf, Beer, and ME humiliation)

BB: “Man City looked pants without Kevin DB”
KMFE agrees!  Citeh without Kevin is like the rainy city center without bucket-hat wearing scallies and wags taking drugs at a Madchester rave and getting into a fight.  In other words, grim.

BB: “BTW – Ibrahimovic – what a great 500th goal.”
Totally missed that – so thanks:

Think Messi’s 500th for Barcelona was a better goal:

 

ME: “Chris Hughton will offer Spuds a lifeline this week… another loss will be disastrous!”
Looking for that potato chicken alumni help?  It has come to this for Spuds fans?

ME: “Arsenal may have turned a corner… at least I hope so!”
Has BE hacked this account?  Or entered picks as you given that there is little hack prevention currently employed 🙂

Analysis
And give away my advantage?  I don’t think so!  Anyway, I reserve the rights to change my guesses before the games and I’m very much undecided on whether the hornet moosemen can beat Fulham away – have this feeling that Mitrovic will bang in a brace.

Week 5 – Results

This week was the week that the hornets failed to win.  It’s on occasions like these where I try to pick against the home team which is something I learned from LJ.

  • If Watford win I don’t care about my iotj pick being wrong.
  • If Watford lose then at least I get an iotj pick correct.  Hopefully, exact.

This weeks results:

Weekly Leaders

Looks like this was the week that the leader, AM, took a bit of a tumble dropping a whopping 7 places from last week.  KMFE is consistent (at least?).

Overall Tables
Arbitrary Points System – League Table

Don’t forget the picks this week!

Week 5 – Picks

This weeks picks are all in and not one person was late.

Random Space Filler

So here are the weekly guesses from all.

Guesswork

Weekly Quotes

BE: “Had to go for a diplomatic draw, although one JE will probably still think that I’ve dissed his team.”
Good job BB doesn’t have a team in the Premier League because your picks have too many outside influences!

LJ: “I think the Hornets will suffer their first loss of the season but I’m hoping it wont happen.”
I am going to read this as you slowly becoming sympathetic to the Watford fan’s cause;however, I know as a fan of the mighty Reds you just want Mourinho to fail!

ME: “I have Watford to win because it’s your birthday and they undid Spuds so they can’t be all bad!”
Or maybe the Potato Chickens are worse than we want them to be!  Lots of away games but another loss make it look like it could be a typical Spurs year…..

AM: “Banana skins everywhere, not least at Vicarage Road! “
Are we going to park the Banana bus?

Park the Banana Bus

JE “City will win the league with 38 wins and 152 goals and no goals conceded according to me!”
I haven’t posted KMFE or BE’s pre-season predictions but that is not far off what KMFE predicted!

Kris Picks The League Winner

AA: “Land of the living, I have returned!”
Welcome back.  Keep picking the Wolves!

BB:”I have no idea what I am doing on this. I am afraid after 25 years working in football, I am more likely to forecast the temperature and flow in cubic metres of the Thames at Maidenhead than I am the correct score between hornets and devils”
Interesting.

This Weeks Factoids

Today, according to Twitter:

So how does that compare to a football?

Volume
The volume of a ball is approximately V=4/3*pi*r^3 if we ignore the fact that it’s not quite truly spherical and is actually a truncated icosahedron.  The size of a football is roughly 22 cm (8.65 inches) in diameter for a regulation size 5 ball. Rules state that a size 5 ball must be 68 to 70 cm in circumference.

So the volume a ball will displace is 5500 cubic cm which is about .0055 cubic meters.  I’m not sure that matters but anyway, the key is the area of the ball  which is roughly pi*r^2 or 400 cm squared.

Time
During a game we can assume the ball is travelling for approximately 100 minutes.  Now, if it’s at Old Trafford and United are behind it’s going to be closer to 105 but we’ll keep it simple.

Distance

This is tough so we’ll make some huge guesses.  Let’s start with 10km as the baseline as this is what the average distance a footballer runs.   Of course, it’s probably less if you’re Pogba, but we’re just base-lining here.  It’s also a lot less than cricket players run.

There are 10 players that are in the outfield for each team.  We’ll exclude the team managed by Pep who insists that there are 11 outfield players.

That’s 200 km.

Now I’m going to adjust for the fact that the ball is stationary during throw ins and other periods (like as much of the last 5 minutes as possible if Watford are hanging on to the lead).   That’s a 20% adjustment.

That’s 160 km.

Now we can add in the fact that not everyone spends the whole game with the ball at their feet.  Some teams love the long ball and some teams smack in a lot of long crosses.   Most goalkeepers will also occasionally kick the ball out of the box on a kick off.  So let’s factor in the long ball.

In the EPLabout 25% of passes are crosses (except anyone at Arsenal who is genetically programmed to pass the ball 10 feet back and forth – except Xhaka who passes it all the way back to the goalkeeper.   About 5% are considered long passes!  Get Fellaini in the box and bomb it!

So this takes 16 km for when the ball is not at the feet and adds about another 80 km for the long ball (I’m just estimating).

Finally let’s adjust for the fact that many players aren’t making decent runs and are moving with the ball.  So the movement of player can’t be considered cumulative and you we need a negative factor to reduce the overall distance of the ball.. and in the end we get a volume displacement of  something way less than the Thames.

It should also be noted that ball doesn’t maintain it’s shape and the integrity of the ball is often ruined leading to a loss of shape and suppleness that makes it “bobble” inexplicably whenever in the vicinity of players with inherent skill and dexterity, such as Zaha try to control the ball.

I hope this was educational and not just providing evidence on how much my mathematical ability has deteriorated during the last lots of years since I left Uni as well as the ability lost in the last few minutes since I finished my birthday drink.

Worth Being This Old Today ForGetting older sucks but this almost makes celebrating it worthwhile!  Recommended if you like 10% beer!

Thanks for the Birthday Wishes.

Week 4 – Picks

Most of the picks are in – remember that you can always change your mind up until kick-off.

Full Set of Predictions

AB’s Fun Factoid

Unfortunately, we don’t have one this week.  So the question is – who is the youngest player to score in the Premier League?

Clue 1:  It wasn’t  Jason Dozzell  who scored for Ipswich against Coventry at age 16 years and 57 days

Clue 2:  He did it playing for Everton.

Clue 3:  It’s not who you thought after reading Clue 2.

This Week’s Comments

LJ: “Ambitious prediction for the Reds game but I’m sticking with it”
No one knows these days with the Reds – sometimes they look like they can score at will.  Can you imagine if they had two Mo’s?

Image result for salah lookalike
There’s Only One Mo Salah?!

JE: “I can’t believe I’m picking a United win again.”
To be fair, they are playing Burnley

ME: “Arsenal will improve on their form and put Cardiff to the sword…maybe I’m still thinking about the team from a few years ago!!”
Spoken like a true Spuds fan.

ME:”Watford’s run will come to end…hope I don’t have to eat my words!”
Really spoken like a true potato chicken fan.  Hope you’re wrong!

KMFE:”Shakhtar, Lyon and Hoffenheim?! If you’d asked me, I wouldn’t have even thought any of them were in the Champions League. ”
You’ll need the easy teams without Kev.  Bit easier than the Liverpool group with PSG, Belgrade, and Napoli!

AA:”Last week. I actually tried to make educated-esque choices. It may have been my worst result”
First lesson you will learn is that the more you know about football the worse you will perform.  This explains LJs performance week after week and year after year (or so he insists!)

BE: “Today I’m going for the 4-4-2 system. Four home wins, four aways and two draws……but not necessarily in the right order. Before JE says it….not necessarily all the right results either!”
I thought I would post the referenced link.

This Week’s Summary

Due to the fact that I randomly selected numbers this week I don’t have any real analysis to share.

Week 3 – Predictions

As always, predictions aren’t locked in until the first kick-off.

Predictions

Happy to see so many updated their picks early. Still waiting for a couple.

JE Time

This Week’s Comments

I do not publish all the comments so don’t be offended if yours are not included.  I will be adding a new special segment to posts though called AB’s Fun Factoid.

AM: “Gone & done the unthinkable – United for a home defeat!!”
It’s only unthinkable to a United fan.  The rest of us have often picked United for a home loss – the lack of bias shows you are maturing as a picker.  I also hope you’re right!

BE: “Arsenal have proved they can actually get the ball in the net if they can create enough scoring opportunities. Here’s hoping they hammer in a few goals.”
You would hope that if you create scoring chances you would get the ball in the net – last week saw multiple misses from inside 6 yards.  Probably said more about Chelski than Arsenal but big win is needed this week.

ME: “Resorted to guesswork this week!”
Isn’t that every week week?  I should pass on your weekly analysis to AM… so he can laugh at you as he looks at who’s behind him.

AA: “Only partly random this week. Hope is there for Wolves. Faint hope, but hope nonetheless.”
I was only kidding when I said we’d respect you for picking wolves 💖.

LJ:”Hornets on a roll; let’s keep it going.”
This week has been all about Harry Hornet doing his Zaha impression.  I’d rather focus on his happy dance.

Of course, I would be amused if he added a Neymar roll to his dive.

KMFE:”Thinking we should add in some Scottish Prem — it appears Stevie G has wired together a squad that never loses… A million Scousers cry that he didn’t learn this as a player…”
Ouch..  let’s hope they don’t slip up a the end though.   Interestingly, they decided there was no room at the Inn for the Glasgow teams in the English league.  I guess Swansea, Cardiff, and Wrexham were lucky to get in when they did.

Bonus points for anyone who can add in the comments three other Welsh teams in the English League without cheating.  AM- Any clues?

AB’s Fun Factoid

Soccer developed in London’s famed Newgate Prison in the early 1800s. Prisoners who had their hands cut off for crimes of theft came up with a sport that used only the feet.

So claimed by https://medium.com/sportspickle/20-amazing-soccer-facts-most-american-sports-fans-don-t-know-4a9a0dd7abf9

This Week’s Analysis

Bournemouth vs Everton
Seems everyone is on the Everton bandwagon already but I don’t see Richarlison scoring every week and everyone has too quickly fallen off the Bournemouth bandwagon.

Arsenal vs West Ham
No idea what Emery is trying to do – he wants to play a high press but in that style of play Ozil doesn’t work (literally). HenrikhMkh doesn’t really fit the system either and he insists on Auba being stuck up front.  Maybe he’ll switch things up – put Ramsey back.  They need a win.

Fulham vs Burnley
Think I’ll save time and do a few with pictures.


Huddersfield vs Cardiff


Liverpool vs Brighton

Man United vs Tottenham
How will Spuds do at Old Toilet?  I recommend that they don’t let Lloris park the bus!  United will find a way to not lose – it’s what they do in big games.

I think I Streeted the Bus Just a Park Away

Newcastle vs Chelsea
Chelsea have had a week to remind Kante that’s he’s not a goalscorer.  Expect it tighter at the back.

Southampton vs Leicester

Watford vs Crystal Palace

Watford are on a roll.  Crystal Palace are too.  Which team will crack first?  Woy is pwaying mind games so maybe that indicates a lack of confidence.  Should be a close game but Watford might nick it if Zaha stays standing.

Another Penalty?

Wolves vs Man City
One plucky picker picked an upset!  They’ve also mentioned a number of times that Neves should be kicking for the Eagles.  I’m not sure that would work but who knows what the future holds – we had an Australian Rules punter for a while (and he was good).