Week 2 – Predictions

Here are the final predictions*.

Weekly Comments

AB: Can you name a [current of former] professional Football player with medical degree & PhD in Philosophy?

I would have to spend a lot of time thinking about this.  My first guess was Sturridge after all his hospital stays….. but that’s only half the criteria.  My second guess was Ian Holloway because only a true philosopher could come up with deep quotes like  “‘If I fell in a barrel of boobs, I’d come out sucking my thumb! “, but again, only half.

I had to cheat.  If anyone wants to know the answer, guess in the comments and I will tell you if you are correct.

KMFE:I’ve got nothing much to say this week, as I am still deeply in mourning for Kevin’s knee. Bernardo Silva, give me everything you’ve got. Obrigado ;-)…

I’m not sure what Citeh are going to do now.  They have such a small squad and busy schedule.  They also didn’t sign very many players in the Summer window that could really replace KDB.  Oh wait, that’s Mourinho, not Pep.

ME: Lots of analysis [I usually ignore ;)].  AM didn’t get too far ahead of ME and my form will gradually improve. AM will slip up!

Tempting fate this week Mr ME!

LJ:Picking the Hornets, as Burnley should be a bit tired after their mid-week exertions. Hope I don’t jinx your Hornets

You also picked Liverpool.  Hope you didn’t jink the mighty reds!  Watford will be ok, we only need 37 more points for safety.  We’re about 7.5% safe!

Match Analysis

This week I’ve chosen to do a match analysis -something that usually backfires.

Brighton v Man United
This game is really about who has the best hand-brake.  I believe that the ball will be kicked off and each team will set back in a defensive position and leave the ball in the middle of the park.  After watching nothing happen for 89 minutes, Luke Shaw will go forward and pick up the ball and go upfield to try and score.  Mourinho will bench him next week for going out of position.

Burnley v Watford
Burnley are playing in Europa League and won midweek with a clean sheet.  It’s not inconceivable that they will keep another clean sheet despite being tired.  But last week Watford played Graham Taylor football – four-four-two (who does that now?) and keep the ball in the other half. There’s something I admire about the style – the other team can’t score from the other half with a good goalkeeper like Foster can they?

This could actually be a good game.   Too close to call.

Cardiff v Newcastle
I don’t really like Newcastle.  On that basis alone I’m pulling for a point for the Welsh boys.

Chelsea v Arsenal
Are we overrating Chelsea after one result? Yes, I just don’t think they are that good.  I’m already reading about how Kante is relishing his new role going forward like he’s the new Eden Hazard or something.  I don’t think so.

Have we lowered expectations on Arsenal after one result?  Perhaps.  They were outplayed by Citeh but they looked much better when Lacazette was on the field.  If Emery doesn’t start him this week then we’re looking at Moyes 2.0.

Crystal Palace v Liverpool
Palace looked good last week.  Palace have a small stadium with loud fans.  Liverpool are the media darlings – well they play exciting attacking football so why not.   This is my upset special pick.  That basically is a throwaway statement that allows me to say “told you so” and score all kind of kudos  if Palace wins and shrug if they don’t.

Everton v Southampton
As a Watford fan I will not comment on Silva except to say I don’t like him and I hope they lose.  They won’t.

Leicester v Wolves
I think everyone wants Leicester to be a lot worse without Mahrez but they looked lively for periods last week and Vardy is committed to the cause.  Maddison is useful and they finally upgraded their defense (got rid of the older players who still were living off their Champions contribution).   Wolves look to play attractive football and this is the game I have picked to actually watch.

Hoping Wolves win to give LS a good birthday weekend.

Man City v Huddersfield
Even without KDB they will win to zero.

Tottenham v Fulham
Is this at Wembley?  Is Kane burnt out?  This is my other upset special pick.

West Ham v Bournemouth
I don’t like West Ham and I hope they lose. They won’t

 

*No Longer Subject to change.

Week 1 – Results are In

This will be the first year that I haven’t jumped out to an early lead but I blame that on others having some good gue

Week 1 Guesses

I will endeavor to get results up a bit quicker than this in the future.  I’m actually considering building a site to make this a bit more self-service (i.e automatically calculate results) but that’s not something I expect to see soon.  I have to learn a programming language, a framework and figure out how to even do it!

Congrats to AM who managed to pip ME who had a decent start… and congrats to LS who really should do better than his effort last year.  I was disappointed to see that he reneged on picking Wolves 4-0 each week.

Week 2 is available for picks – I will get about 5 weeks worth up there this weekend.  I’ll try post a game summary on tomorrow – can’t promise as I’m trying to finish a jigsaw puzzle! (because I’m old).

Week 1 – Picks Are In

Here are the weekly picks.

Guesses

Thank you to everyone who took the time to pick this week – I know some of you have more important things going on in your life.

Weekly Comments
AM: Think I’ll start preparing my speech right now! Good luck for the new season everyone (Especially ME). 

The gauntlet has been thrown down:

AM vs ME. It’s ON!

BE: With no form available for this season, I will have to rely on luck instead of detailed analysis and deeply considered predictions

You’ve finished first and second.  There’s no one believing this hustle, this rope-a-dope.   The most important thing is that you don’t let ME copy you and get an unfair advantage over AM!  The gauntlet is at stake.

KMFE: I miss you already, Stoke — now who do I pick on with weekly 1-1 draws?
You might want to consider Watford for your draws.  No offensive capability with pretty decent goalkeeping.  You’re welcome.

KMFE: Also, a shame West Brom has to get relegated to get that snazzy boiler as mascot action going…
Here is the linky goodness.  No idea this was happening.  I’m happy to get Wolfy though.  Always a soft spot for Wolves.  Here’s a gratuitous Wolves mascot for-the-ladies

Wolfy with No Sock In Pants

ME:  Spuds have failed to buy/sell anyone…
Apparently, Poch is blaming Brexit.  Apparently, Brexit impacts only the N17 post code because Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Watford, Citeh, Liverpool, etc. All picked up European players.  They’ll be ok – same Top 4 finish, probably.

ME:Looks like the same top 4 or 5 will be the same this year.
I would have hoped you would have aspirations of doing better!

LS: Put me down for 0-0s across each match x
Will do.

JE: Tricky!!!
It always is.

More to come.  Bit late today.   I’m going to work on getting the entry form a little better.  Analysis on all Premier League teams coming up!

Preseason Table

This was my pre-season pick table.  Frankly, this was obviously predicted after 3 too many beers because Man City aren’t really going to get to 100 points this year (again).

I’m generally comfortable with the order though Watford are a little high (I’m thinking 4th from bottom) and Everton are higher than expected as I thought they’d be a bottom half-team.

Playing Silly Buggers Prediction

I do see Wolves and Fulham both staying up though… but poor Cardiff… they have to leave because this is the English Premier League! It’s why Swansea went last year!*

I can also see Palace finishing a little higher as they don’t have a terrible team and I’m surprised I have Arsenal still falling out of the Top 6.

So maybe I’m not generally comfortable with the order.

Let the games begin.

*I have no issue with Cardiff being in the Premier League  Just a silly joke.

Opening Post 2018-2019

Today was the Community Shield which I didn’t watch because it’s not on the regular television.  I did spend some time looking for “Charity Shield” and I couldn’t find anything.  When did they rename it? They renamed it in 2002!

I’ve been calling this trophy the wrong thing for as long as it takes to get a baby to the age of consent (in England). Wow. At least I don’t call the Coca-Cola Cup the Milk Cup anymore. (That’s a joke).

So looking at a 2-0 scoreline in favor of Man City I think I can say that they have made a good start with Aguero getting one of those victories he can’t see to get many of when paired with Messi.   I’m presuming that Kevin was great, Sterling missed a few, Pep was pleased with the first step of the process and that Chelsea weren’t bad just because Conte was the manager.

So where are we.

Optional Task 1

Download this spreadsheet and enter your picks for the season.  I will be able to compare your actual vs pre-season.  I’ve done this for a couple of seasons now and it’s no surprise that your pre-season self loses quite handily to your actual self but it’s fun to see where you were.  I will create your Premier League table and make some comments.

Excel 2018-19 Schedule

Complete it and email it to me at jce @ In off the jumper . com

Mandatory 

Enter your picks for Week 1 and 2.  I’m going to see if I can make automation improvements but for now it’s the same basic system as before: pick your initials, set some scores and add an interesting comment.

Week August 10 2018

Week August 18 2018

And the Head to Heads…..

Find the head-to-head you want below.  I’m not going to comment on these because there are too many.

The left is comparing week to week results and the right is comparing all picks for all games.  As you can see – there are a LOT of draws.

How did you compare to the Champion BE?

Clue: It rhymes with Zoo Cost and is an anagram of yuo lsto.

How did ME fare against AM?

Clue: It rhymes with Zoo Cost and is an anagram of yuo lsto.
Clue 2: It’s the same as your results against BE
Clue 3:And others
























































And the Final Tables are.

I’m sure you’ve wondered how the table would have looked if all your results were completely accurate.  Who would have one the league (you’d think we’d all have realized at some point that Citeh would win)?  Who would come last?  Do we favour our own teams?  Let’s find out.

Most Accurate Table (Only 38 of 38 weeks)
It shouldn’t be a surprise that the winner had the most accurate table.   It’s fairly even across the board with the lower end and higher end biases as you’d expect in a prediction game.  The big anomalies were Crystal Palace and Watford (this will be a theme).

Most Accurate Table (Only 35 of 38 weeks)
LS seems to think he had a terrible year but in the 35 games picked his table reflected the final table quite accurately – getting the Top 6 and the Bottom 2.  The biggest delta was again… the Hornet Moosemen

You’ve Got to Be Kidding Table
I don’t know who this ME guy is but I think it’s safe to say he’s somewhat biased showing a rather optimistic view of Spuds.  It’s probably not unreasonable to suggest his loss to the arch-nemesis AM may have come as a direct result of the nonsense that is a season that has the “super invincibles” – a team that wins 98% of it’s games!   

You’ve Got to Be Kidding Table (Runner Up)
I really don’t understand anyone who thinks a Jose team will ever score 104 points in a year.

My Table
I would say that this table is pretty decent outside of my constant belief over the winter break that the Hornets would step out of their slump.  They didn’t.  I was also fooled by WBA who I consistently believed were better than they were (or better than they played at least).

The Rest
Impressed that you actually stayed honest with your picks and put Citeh ahead of the Reds.  Watford too high.

No surprises here….Watford too high..

Watford too high…..but a Liverpool fan are you?  You’re in the Europa League and United are 2nd?  This is the pick against Liverpool theory you’ve mentioned – you might lose the game but at least you get the pick… if you win the game who cares about the pick!

All year your picks are better than your results.

Average Tables and Slip
The below is the average table and the slippage that we collectively picked.

Watford too high!!!!!

And The Winners Is…. Standard Scoring

Finally the results are up – the winner of the season are as shown!

This is confusing but I’ve created tables so that everyone can see where they ranked for all the weeks that they played.  Six of us managed to pick every single week.  If I do this again next year I’ll probably come up with some default method of scoring – default to 0-0 draws.

And the Winner IS BE!

What?

Some interesting take-aways here.

Despite losing in the regular point scoring system, I actually won using the alternate points system.  I will take this as I know that during discussions we actually all agreed that this was the fairest scoring system as it accounts for getting number of goals correct  (i.e. picking a 1-1 draw when it’s 3-1 would score a point).

We had also discussed the scoring bias for draws and there is show to be true with the current system.

Next year the alternate scoring system.

You win a great prize:

Deconstructed Bomb!

Unfortunately, if you are not here to pick it up in person it goes to the next placed position.  That would be 2nd… and it’s ME!

There is also a runner-up prize:

The runner-up also needs to be here in person and they are…. because it’s ME!

How did you Compare
Trying to keep things a fair comparison – these tables show how you finished in the games where you played.

AM will be happy because he will probably win a prize (donated by ME) I don’t know what it is but it will look something like this:

Local Prize

And here are the rest…. it’s very disappointing to see ME at the bottom so much.

Luckily we have LJ to prop us all up.

What about Mark Lawrenson and the Super Computer?

I can’t be sure to get all Lawro’s picks correct because sometimes the picks don’t get published but it’s the best I can do.  The Supercomputers feature heavily in the top half of the table.   Last year’s “winner” was SC3 and despite a very poor start to the year it slowly climbed up the table.

This year BE held off the human and automated challengers.

Tomorrow I will post your tables and the head-to-heads and maybe  a few comments.

Final Calculations Are Done! But nothing revealed..

So looking at the data I noticed that my final table didn’t match the actual table.  I had given Watford an extra win over Chelsea, I had Southampton and West Ham scoring more goals than they did against each other and a few hiccups here and there.  It took me while to go through all 38 weeks worth of games to get everything perfectly right and I’m happy to announce that I’m done.

This effort and re-calculation did have a rather interesting impact on some of the positions – I’ll let AM and ME figure out what this means for their respective free/expensive beer consumption!  There will also be some controversy at the top of the tables when the winners are revealed.

Not actual Size.

Luckily I am the Commissioner!!

I will post the full results tomorrow or the day after with the following:

  • Your record against others for all games
  • Your table versus the actual table (you thought 100 points was impressive? Wait until you see some of the predictions!)
  • Your record in the league table where you actually picked (I’ll try to do this)
  • The winners
  • The losers
  • The best
  • The worst
  • What did the Supercomputers do this year and how will the algorithms be updated?
  • And anything else you ask

This week’s final results:

Congrats JE!

Well done JE and I’m not sure but AM may regret this week…

Week ? – Which is Actually Weeks 31 and 35

So there are a few more games this week thrown in on a Tuesday.

This week there are a few critical games.

At the Bottom
Somewhere West Brom fans are hoping for a Leicester miracle but it’s unlikely that Swansea and Southampton will play to a draw and then both lose their final game.   The Boing-Boings will lose the spring in their step sooner or later and have to hope they can Boing their way back up next year.

WBA and Stoke and ?

There is still a chance that Huddersfield could be relegated.  They end the season against Chelsea (who really want to win) and Arsenal (who will be sending off Arsene) so are staring two defeats in a row.  If I were them I would be hoping for Southampton inflicting a heavy defeat on the Swans.   The EPL would finally be truly the EPL by losing the Welsh… but then Cardiff is waiting in the wings!  I don’t care but why call it the EPL?  Will Gerrard get Rangers promoted to the EPL – or will he just get his ex-gaffer’s job.

I’m Going to Manage the Best Team In Glasgow one day!

At the Top

It’s a done deal for Citeh but they are still two wins from the triple digit points so will be looking to score more goals than they did against Huddersfield.

Who’s Going to Europe?

It’s getting tight with (scraping wins) Chelsea team and (stuttering) Spurs team still able to leapfrog Liverpool into the Top 4.  There is something romantic about winning the Champions League without ever actually being a Champion and not qualifying for the next year’s CL.

Harry Kane has gone a little cold and will be praying for a few crucial goals.

Please Let Me Score

In Other News

In other (good) news, SAF is up and talking about his results after suffering a brain hemorrhage.  No word on whether he has given any nurses the hair dryer treatment yet.  It’s nice to see some of the managerial acrimony put on pause for a change.

I’m Not Done Yet!

Also Wenger won a mini-league trophy!

It Shrunk in the Wash

Wenger managed his last game at home.

Everyone seems to think he was forced out (he was) and everyone seems to think he’ll manage somewhere else (he’s hungry)…. but it’s hard to re-dedicate yourself to someone else after you’ve given your life to them.  It’s not like he’s had a bit of Monaco on the side… or had a mistress in Marseille.  Let’s see if the Arse cock this up by bringing in an unqualified former player in the hopes of former glory.  Arteta – he’s been an assistant, he’ll do.  At least they don’t have the grand Moyesy succession plan!

Your comments

Sorry that I won’t be using all your comments this week – I do read each and every one of them.  There is also a comment option on each post if you’re interested in that (assuming you’ve read this far – I don’t have any evidence of that because I don’t use any tracking software).

I will use one though
AM: “Nothing can Possibly go wrong!!”
You got that prediction wrong!  1-0?

Man U